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Ethiopia, Somalia and Somaliland

Ethiopia

Capital: Addis Ababa

Ethnic Groups: Oromo, Amara, Tigraway, Somalie, Guragie, Sidama

Languages: Amarigna, Oromigna, Tigrigna, Somaligna, English

Government: Federal Republic

Somalia

Capital: Mogadishu

Ethnic Groups: Somali, Bantu and other non-Somali (including Arabs 30,000)

Languages: Somali, Arabic, Italian, English

Government: no permanent national government; transitional, parliamentary federal government

Somaliland

The October 2004 formation, in Kenya, of the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) of Somalia was heralded as a breakthrough and a possible remedy to Somalia’s protracted crisis. This optimism dissipated over the next year as internal divisions prevented the TFG from making any progress on state-building tasks. In June 2006, after months of fighting between Mogadishu’s U.S.-backed militia leaders and the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC), the UIC took control of the capital city and appointed a hardline Islamic leader to head its new legislature. The takeover caused international and regional concern that the country could descend again into civil war unless the weak TFG, based in Baidoa, and UIC were able to agree on how to rebuild the country. Ethiopian and TFG forces retook Mogadishu on 28 December 2006, dissolving the tenuous order brought to the city by UIC control, and continued their advance to include the UIC's southern stronghold of Kismaayo.

Politically, Somalia has now been returned roughly to where it was when the TFG was formed in October 2004. The government is weak, unpopular and faction ridden, and the power vacuum in southern Somalia is rapidly being filled by the same faction leaders and warlords the Courts overthrew less than a year ago. Many Mogadishu residents resent the Courts’ defeat, feel threatened by the TFG and are dismayed by the presence of Ethiopian troops in the capital. Mogadishu is awash with weapons, and there have already been hit-and-run attacks on TFG and Ethiopian troops. The potential for serious violence is just below the surface.

Ethiopia’s military victory has dismantled only the most visible part of the Courts: the regional administrative authority in south central Somalia (including Mogadishu), which served essentially as a political platform for Hawiye clan interests. Other elements, including the militant Shabaab leadership, remain largely intact and have dispersed throughout the country, threatening to wage a long war. A U.S. air strike on 8 January 2007 apparently wounded Aden Hashi ‘Ayro, a prominent Shabaab commander, and killed some of his guards but failed to destroy any top targets. A second U.S. airstrike was launched on 23 January, but information on the targets and impact was not immediately available. The grassroots network of mosques, schools and private enterprises that has underpinned the spread of Salafist teachings and their extremist variants remains in place and continues to expand thanks to generous contributions from Islamic charities and the private sector.

Whether the Islamists, including their more extreme jihadi elements, can stage a comeback in some fashion depends largely on whether the TFG restores stability and wins public support across southern Somalia.

The rapid replacement of Ethiopian troops with a broader, multilateral peacekeeping mission is essential to defuse public resentment towards what is considered a foreign occupation. Ethiopia and the U.S. now bear a significant responsibility to consolidate peace in Somalia. They must push the TFG to take the necessary steps to transform itself into a more inclusive national body. This message should also be carried by the broader international community.